Year: 2008

Categories
Analysis & Commentary

Defense News Editorial on Taiwan Arms Sales

When the U.S. State Department notified Congress Oct. 3 of a proposed $6.4 billion arms package offering a range of defensive weaponry to Taiwan, the sheer scope and cost of the package caught everyone’s attention.

Yet the package has a history dating back to 2001, and these notifications were both incomplete and well past due. The U.S. administration has drifted away from long-established policy in dealing with Taiwan during this time, and it only undercuts American interests in Asia.

U.S. President George W. Bush released a number of items for sale to Taiwan in April 2001 that were seen as crucial to Taiwan’s military modernization, thus fulfilling an important role in U.S. obligations to provide for Taiwan’s self-defense under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA). That decision was based on counsel from all parties in the U.S. interagency process, as well as on Taiwan’s own assessment of its defense needs.

Taiwan bears equal responsibility for the seven-year impasse over arms sales, given its domestic political wrangling over the arms budget. Nevertheless, the budgets for these systems were passed in Taiwan in 2007, with eight pending congressional notifications starting to roll into the State Department from the Defense Department in early 2008.

While the notification package sent to Capitol Hill was welcome as a positive step in an otherwise troubled relationship, it omitted Black Hawk utility helicopters for logistics and humanitarian support, well as some of the requested Patriot anti-missile systems and a submarine design program.

It also took more than seven months for the notifications to accumulate – an unprecedented action irrespective of Bush administration claims that this was part of “a normal interagency process.” There is simply no existing example of notifications being stacked at the State Department in such a manner.

Editorial in Defense News – “Taiwan Arms: 2 Steps Back, 1 Step Forward” (PDF)

Categories
Analysis & Commentary

Special Commentary: Taiwan Congressional Notifications Released

The US-Taiwan Business Council comments on Congressional Notifications for Taiwan Arms Sales

While there has been a delay of over 7 months for 8 separate Congressional Notifications (CNs) for arms sales to Taiwan, on October 3 the U.S. Department of State released six items for notification: Javelin, Harpoon, spare aircraft parts, PAC-III, E-2T retrofit, and Apache. The total DSCA estimated cost is US$6.463 billion.

Two of the programs in the original request were omitted – the submarine Phase I design program and the Black Hawk program – while the PAC-III program was reduced. [The original request included the Harpoon anti-ship missiles; Apache helicopters (x30 units); PAC-III (x7 units, 6 operational batteries + 1 training battery); diesel-electric submarine design – Phase I; airplane spare parts (mostly for fighters); E-2T retrofit; UH-60 Black Hawk utility helicopters (x60 units); and Javelin anti-vehicle missiles.]

It seems as if the Bush Administration’s intention today was to create an overall package based on a dollar figure. They viewed the Black Hawks as a large but not controversial program, and therefore it was one they could punt into 2009 with a degree of confidence that the incoming U.S. administration would not view it as controversial and would likely send it to the Hill. Omitting the submarines was not controversial within decision-making circles, and in the case of PAC-III it pared back the buy to reduce its overall cost.

The impasse over arms sales has done immeasurable damage to the U.S.-Taiwan relationship over the past several years, and these Congressional Notifications – while very late and incomplete – are an important and positive step forward in US-Taiwan relations. However, it has taken over 10 months for the notifications to accumulate – an unprecedented action irrespective of Bush Administration claims that this was part of a normal inter-agency process. There is simply no existing example of notifications being stacked in such a manner.

 

Special Commentary: Taiwan Congressional Notifications Released (PDF)
Related DSCA Notices (PDF)

Categories
Taiwan Defense & Security Reports

Taiwan Defense & Security Report – Q3, 2008

The past three months saw a continued souring of public opinion and the end of the honeymoon period for President Ma Ying-jeou’s government, and the continued delay of Congressional notifications for U.S. arms sales added further strain to an already difficult period. Challenges extant both in the economic sphere and with domestic administration may have significant implications for cross-Strait affairs, as well as for Taiwan’s national security policy.

While Taipei was bolstered by its diplomatic victory when the Bush administration finally submitted the notifications to Congress for a scaled-back arms package in early October, much uncertainty remains regarding the best way forward for Taiwan’s national defense establishment. Debates on defense and national security issues are expected to rage in the coming months as the Ma administration transforms its strategic vision into policy.

This quarterly report will provide an overview of the major political events in Taiwan during the third quarter of 2008, together with an appraisal of the developments and trends that are likely to influence defense and national security issues on the island, a status update on US-Taiwan defense relations, and an update on the progress of current Taiwan procurement programs.

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Past Events

September 28-30, 2008 – US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2008

Event:
US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2008

September 28-30, 2008
Amelia Island, Florida

2008 US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference
2008 US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference

The United States–Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2008 was held September 28-30, 2008 on Amelia Island, Florida. This was the seventh in a series of ongoing conferences addressing the future of U.S. defense cooperation with Taiwan, the defense procurement process, and Taiwan’s defense and national security needs.

The first conference in this series was the St. Petersburg, Florida event where former Minister of National Defense Tang Yiau-ming gave the keynote address in March of 2002. The second conference in the series was held in February 2003 in San Antonio, Texas, the third in October 2004 in Phoenix, Arizona, the fourth in September 2005 in San Diego, California, the fifth in September 2006 in Denver, Colorado, and the sixth in September 2007 in Annapolis, Maryland.

Keynote Addresses
The 2008 conference featured keynote a address from Chen Chao-min, Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense. Additional keynote speeches were provided by David Sedney, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Asian & Pacific Security Affairs at the U.S. Department of Defense, and by John Norris, Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian & Pacific Affairs at the U.S. Department of State.

Conference Program
Sessions at the US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference featureed a moderator and several speakers, and some sessions included additional commentators. Each speaker presented a short summary of a paper on the session topic from his or her own viewpoint, presentations that were then followed by a moderator-driven question and answer period, as well as a moderator-led discussion among the panelists. This format provided the maximum amount of time for exchanges between the panel and the audience, as well as between the panelists, offering a forum for substantial and valuable interaction and discussion.

Breakout Sessions
Three sub-sessions within Session IV concentrated on specific issues from a more narrow perspective. This year, the themes for the breakout sessions were Space, Information & Network Security, as well as the U.S. presidential election and potential implications for the U.S.-Taiwan relationship.

Archived version of the website for the 2008 US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference

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Press Releases

US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2008 to discuss current trends in Taiwan military and national security relations with the United States

The US-Taiwan Business Council is pleased to announce that it will host the 7th annual US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference on Amelia Island, Florida, from Sunday, September 28 – Tuesday, September 30, 2008.

Conference sessions will focus on a range of subjects, including Taiwan’s long-range plans for force modernization; military transformation and the move to an all professional force; the complex challenges of managing large programs and satisfying domestic obligations; the role of space as it relates to security in the Taiwan Strait; and information and network assurance. We will also examine how America’s two presidential candidates might manage US-Taiwan relations.

Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers noted that “this event comes at an important time in the defense relationship. President Ma’s Kuomintang (KMT) government has only been in power for a few months, and the substance and tone of his security priorities is just emerging. In addition, we are still waiting for the Bush Administration to submit the outstanding arms sales notifications awaiting Congressional review, an issue that raises serious implications for future U.S. commitments to Taiwan.”

 

“US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2008” to discuss current trends in Taiwan military and national security relations with the United States (PDF file)

Categories
Taiwan Defense & Security Reports

Taiwan Defense & Security Report – Q2, 2008

On Tuesday, May 20, 2008, Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT) was sworn in as president of Taiwan, heralding a sea change in cross-Strait relations. President Ma’s election victory probably means that the likelihood of a war between China and Taiwan – a war that might have involved the U.S. – has been greatly reduced. Numerous challenges remain, however, despite the very visible progress the new administration has been able to achieve in the short period of time since taking office.

As President Ma Ying-jeou and the cabinet he appointed began to take on the task of delivering on President Ma’s campaign promises, challenges have emerged across the full public policy spectrum, ranging from economic issues to cross-Strait ties, to national defense and security issues, and even to U.S.-Taiwan relations. President Ma’s vision and enthusiasm for reform is sometimes checked not only by the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), but increasingly also by members of his own KMT.

This quarterly report will provide a summary of the major political developments during the quarter, along with a survey of the evolving events and factors that have impacted (or could impact) Taiwan’s national security arena. The report will also examine the current and future defense/national security challenges that could be facing Taiwan under the new Ma Ying-jeou administration. Finally, the report will take a look at the substantive personnel changes within the Ministry of National Defense (MND), offer a status update on US-Taiwan defense relations during the second quarter, and provide an update on the progress of current Taiwan procurement programs.

Categories
Taiwan Defense & Security Reports

Taiwan Defense & Security Report – Q1, 2008

The first quarter of 2008 brought an anxiously-anticipated and welcome end to the highly contentious presidential election campaign in Taiwan. It is widely believed that the results of the March 22, 2008 presidential election are likely to usher in a new period in Taiwan politics, with reduced tensions in the relationships with China and with Washington. The consolidation of legislative and executive powers in the Kuomintang (KMT) is also expected to lead to less political gridlock and more forward momentum on reforms.

While the new Cabinet is still being appointed as this is written, it is clear that the new government under President Ma Ying-Jeou -with his significant margin of popular support and control of three-fourths of the legislature – should be able to concentrate on his two-prong policies of economic recovery and national security through cross-Strait reconciliation.

This report will offer a brief survey of the significant political events in the past three months, together with an overview of the major developments that have dominated Taiwan’s national security scene during this period. The analysis will also explore how the results of the presidential election are expected to influence Taiwan’s defense and national security policies going forward.

Categories
Analysis & Commentary

Special Commentary: Inconsistent U.S. Defense Priorities Undermine Taiwan Force Modernization

The US-Taiwan Business Council issues a statement commenting on Taiwan’s Counter-strike Missile Program and U.S. policy towards Taiwan Force Modernization

In the early part of 2007, the Bush Administration tacked a new course on Taiwan’s counter-strike missile program. The new heading was triggered by Ministry of National Defense testimony in the Legislative Yuan (LY) on the fiscal demands for further research, development, and limited deployment of the indigenous HF-2E counter-strike missile – over US$1 billion between 2008 and 2012.

The Bush Administration’s new direction vis-à-vis Taiwan’s counter-strike effort is driven by their increasingly negative view of Taiwan and of its role as a reliable partner in Asia. Rather than consider the tactical and strategic nature of such a capability, the Bush Administration has chosen to focus on the behavior of outgoing Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian as the principal driver for its cross-Strait threat assessment. It has become about politics, not about the balance of power across the Strait. Regrettably, this short term view is impacting programs that should play a critical role in Taiwan’s ability to counter a PRC attack well after President Chen has retired. The denial of a second batch of F-16s to replace aging Vietnam era platforms, and the turnaround on support for Taiwan’s counter-strike missile programs are at the forefront.

Editorial in Defense News (PDF)
Special Commentary: Inconsistent U.S. Defense Priorities Undermine Taiwan Force Modernization (PDF)

Categories
Taiwan Defense & Security Reports

Taiwan Defense & Security Report – Annual Review, 2007

This has been a year of challenges in U.S.-Taiwan relations, dominated by continuing friction over a range of politically-driven initiatives by the Chen Shui-bian government – initiatives that not only aggravated internal divisiveness but also irritated and alienated Washington. The past year saw the process of political consolidation within the two major political coalitions in Taiwan, with the resultant new alignment put to the test in the January 12, 2008 Legislative Yuan elections. Of course, 2007 has also seen some long overdue breakthroughs on the defense budget front, with both the passage of funding for the three major arms procurement programs and an increase in the annual defense budget to a little less than 3% of Taiwan’s GDP.

This annual analysis report provides a brief overview of significant developments in 2007, while examining some of the more systemic factors that influenced the course of events during the past year. The analysis will also look ahead and attempt to gauge the likely impact of both the LY election and the upcoming March 2008 presidential polls on national security affairs.

 

Executive Summary: Taiwan Defense & Security Report – Annual Review, 2007