Clear signals needed on F-16C/Ds
Editorial in the Taipei Times.
Tag: air power
Senator John Cornyn has lifted his hold on the Senate confirmation of Mark W. Lippert for Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian & Pacific Security Affairs – the Pentagon’s top Asia official. The hold was lifted in exchange for a White House letter addressing Senator Cornyn’s concerns over Taiwan arms sales, and in particular the longstanding request from Taiwan to purchase new F-16 C/D aircraft. The White House letter included a commitment that forthcoming “near-term” solutions to Taiwan’s fighter shortfall will include new U.S.-made fighter aircraft. Mr. Lippert was confirmed by the Senate last night, before it recessed for a week.
In the letter, signed by White House Director of Legislative Affairs Robert L. Nabors, the Administration states that “We are mindful of and share your concerns about Taiwan’s growing shortfall in fighter aircraft – as the F-5s are retired from service and notwithstanding the upgrade of the F-16A/Bs. We recognize that China has 2,300 operational combat aircraft, while our democratic partner Taiwan has only 490. We are committed to assisting Taiwan in addressing the disparity in numbers of aircraft through our work with Taiwan’s defense ministry on its development of a comprehensive defense strategy vis-a-vis China.” In addition, the letter asserts that “the Assistant Secretary, in consultation with the inter-agency and the Congress, will play a lead role as the Administration decides on a near-term course of action on how to address Taiwan’s fighter gap, including through the sale to Taiwan of an undetermined number of new U.S.-made fighter aircraft.”
The language in today’s White House letter differs significantly from the original Administration response to Senator Cornyn’s concerns. In a February 15 letter, the U.S. Department of Defense asserted that “we believe the F-16 A/B upgrade effectively meets Taiwan’s current needs.”
In a statement today, Senator Cornyn said “I commend the Administration for recognizing that our friend and ally Taiwan’s air force is woefully undersized and outgunned by Communist China, and their inability to adequately defend themselves poses a threat not just to their own security, but to that of the United States. I look forward to continuing to work hand-in-hand with the Administration and Taiwan as we move forward in this joint effort to ensure Taiwan has the new American-made fighter jets it needs to defend itself.”
Senator Cornyn is not alone in expressing his concerns over U.S. efforts to support Taiwan’s legitimate requirement for a modern and fully capable air force. The Taiwan Airpower Modernization Act – bipartisan legislation authored by Senator Cornyn and Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ), which would require the Obama Administration to sell no fewer than 66 new F 16C/D multirole fighter jets to Taiwan – may be considered in the House later this spring. The issue is continuing to attract attention because as the program to upgrade Taiwan’s 145 F-16 A/Bs begins, and in the absence of new F-16s C/Ds, Taiwan will have as few as 75 usable modern fighters at any given time between 2016-2022.
The US-Taiwan Business Council congratulates Mr. Lippert on his new position, where we look forward to working with him on Taiwan defense issues. The Council also urges the Administration to follow through on this newfound commitment to Taiwan’s defense by announcing the sale of new F-16 C/Ds to Taiwan. At a time when America needs every job it can generate, such a sale would mean more than $17 billion to the U.S. economy, and it would be protecting more than 87,000 jobs. It would also serve to protect peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, which is a core strategic interest of the United States.
Press Note: Senator Cornyn Releases Lippert Hold, White House Makes Concessions on Taiwan Arms Sales (PDF file)
The Taiwan Airpower Modernization Act (TAMA) was submitted today for Congressional review and passage by Senators John Cornyn of Texas and Robert Menendez of New Jersey. The object of the Act is to assist the Obama Administration in meeting the obligations encompassed in the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) – to provide Taiwan with weapons of a defensive nature to meet the growing threat from China. The TAMA would legislate selling 66 or more F-16 C/D fighter jets to Taiwan, and the US-Taiwan Business Council urges Congress to pass the Act.
The balance of power in the Taiwan Strait is an essential aspect of Americas’ Asia Pacific foreign policy. As China continues to invest heavily in expanding and modernizing its military capabilities, passage of the Taiwan Airpower Modernization Act would provide Taiwan with badly needed replacement F-16 fighters, thereby bringing the U.S. government back into compliance with the TRA.
Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers said that “TAMA will enjoy broad bipartisan support in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Both chambers recently released letters in support of the F-16 C/D sale, with significant numbers of signatories from both parties. This strong Congressional support for the sale represents the foundation for TAMA, as well as a path to passage of the Act.”
Hammond-Chambers went on to note, “this Act and this sale is a win-win for the national security interests of both the United States and Taiwan, as the new fighters would address part of the airpower imbalance by modernizing Taiwan’s fighter fleet. The sale also plays a vital role for the United States, in expanding forward-deployed capacity building with a key Asia Pacific security partner.”
US-Taiwan Business Council Urges Congress to Pass the Taiwan Airpower Modernization Act (TAMA) (PDF file)
On August 2, Governor Rick Scott of Florida sent a letter to President Obama in support of selling 66 F-16C/D fighter jets to Taiwan. In his letter, Governor Scott said that the sale and manufacturing of F-16 aircraft supports hundreds of skilled jobs in his state, and that the sale of new aircraft to Taiwan would save 477 direct jobs and 1,446 indirect jobs in Florida.
Governor Scott reminded the President that the window of opportunity to act on Taiwan’s request for new fighters is rapidly closing, and requested that the Obama Administration accept Taiwan’s Letter of Request for F-16C/Ds.
Governor Rick Scott of Florida Letter to President Obama supporting F-16C/D fighter jets to Taiwan (PDF file)
The US-Taiwan Business Council welcomes the August 1, 2011 letter to President Barack Obama, where 181 Members of the U.S. House of Representatives stated their belief that “it is critical for the United States to sell the government of Taiwan all the F-16 C/Ds it requires.” The letter strengthens and reinforces the corresponding message in a similar letter sent earlier this year by 47 members of the U.S. Senate.
The government of Taiwan has attempted to purchase 66 new F-16 C/D model fighters from the United States since 2006, but has found itself in the precarious position of the U.S. refusing to even consider the sale. These new fighters would replace Taiwan’s aging fleet of Vietnam War -era F-5s and Mirage 2000s, which are to be retired from active service in the coming decade.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has committed the Obama Administration to decide by October 1 what – if anything – the U.S. is prepared to do in order to help modernize Taiwan’s air force. That includes making a decision on providing replacement F-16 C/Ds, as well as on upgrading Taiwan’s 145 existing F-16 A/Bs.
181 Members of the U.S. House of Representatives Challenge President Obama on F-16s for Taiwan (PDF file)
House Members’ August 1, 2011 Letter to President Obama on F-16s for Taiwan
Secretary Clinton today informed Senator John Cornyn – who had been blocking the Senate confirmation of the Deputy Secretary of State nominee to motivate the Administration to accept Taiwan’s Letter of Request for new F-16s – that the Obama Administration would make a decision on the F-16 sale, as well as deliver a long delayed Taiwan Airpower Report, by October 1, 2011. On that basis, Senator Cornyn lifted his hold on the nomination of Bill Burns, and awaits the Administration’s announcement and its submission of the report.
While the US-Taiwan Business Council welcomes the Obama Administration’s commitment to finally make a decision, we suspect that the outcome simply reiterates decisions already made, and therefore fails to address Taiwan’s central need – new combat aircraft to meet the growing threat from China.
Press Note: Senator Cornyn and Secretary Clinton Make Taiwan F-16 Deal (PDF file)
The Lockheed Martin Aeronautics division, manufacturer of the F-16 fighter jets long sought by Taiwan, last week announced plans to cut 1,500 jobs at locations around the United States. This news highlights the need for the U.S. government to reassess its position on the sale and to consider the positive economic impact of releasing F-16s to Taiwan. The US-Taiwan Business Council joins Senator John Cornyn of Texas in calling on the Obama Administration to “end its blockade of Taiwan’s request to purchase new F-16s.”
Commenting on the Lockheed Martin announcement, Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers said, “The recent Perryman Report shows that the follow-on sale of F-16s to Taiwan would have a positive economic impact around the country, generating some US$8.7 billion in gross output and sustaining approximately 16,000 direct and indirect jobs over the life of the program. That would represent a significant economic boost to states such as Ohio and Florida – where unemployment stands at 8.6% and 10.6%, respectively. Reports estimate that 1,800 workers in Ohio and 1,900 in Florida depend on an F-16 sale to Taiwan. Should the Taiwan sale fail to materialize, however, current orders would only sustain the F-16 production line for another two years.”
The US-Taiwan Business Council welcomes the May 26, 2011 letter to President Obama, urging him to “move quickly to notify Congress of the sale of 66 F-16C/D aircraft that Taiwan needs in order to modernize its air force.” The letter came from Senators Robert Menendez and James Inhofe, joined by 43 of their U.S. Senate colleagues.
The letter notes that ”successive reports issued by U.S. and Taiwanese defense authorities clearly outline the direct threat faced by Taiwan as a result of China’s unprecedented military buildup,” and that “military experts in both Taiwan and the United States have raised concerns that Taiwan is losing the qualitative advantage in defensive arms that has long served as its primary military deterrent against China.” The letter goes on to say that “without new fighter aircraft and upgrades to its existing fleet of F-16s, Taiwan will be dangerously exposed to Chinese military threats, aggression and provocation, which pose significant national security implications for the United States.”
Commenting on the letter, Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers said, “The Obama Administration has just hosted PLA Chief of Staff Chen Bingde, who made several unsubstantiated claims concerning Taiwan during his visit – including that some on Capitol Hill are considering reviewing the need for the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA). Senators Menendez and Inhofe and their 43 Senate colleagues are clearly and concisely responding to General Chen’s claims. The United States Congress remains firmly in support of the Taiwan Relations Act, and of its requirement to provide Taiwan with arms to provide for its own self-defense.”
U.S. Senate Sends President Obama Strong Message on New F-16s for Taiwan (PDF file)
Senators Menendez and Inhofe May 26, 2011 Letter to President Obama on F-16s for Taiwan
In a letter dated April 1, 2011, Ranking Member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) wrote to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on the issue of U.S. defense equipment sales to Taiwan. The US-Taiwan Business Council shares Senator Lugar’s expressed concerns over Taiwan’s deteriorating airpower situation, and supports his contention that replacement of Taiwan’s tactical aircraft – such as with U.S.-made F-16C/Ds – is both necessary, justified, and not provocative.
In the letter, Senator Lugar wrote “Given the decrepit state of Taiwan’s F-5s, the service life issues associated with its IDF [Indigenous Defense Fighter], and a growing problem … obtaining affordable and sustainable access to spare parts for Mirages, I am very concerned that if the Administration does not act favorably on Taiwan’s outstanding Letter of Request (LOR) for sales of F-16C/D aircraft, Taiwan will be forced to retire all of its existing F-16A/B aircraft in the next decade, leaving it with no credible air-to-air capability.”
The Council also shares Senator Lugar’s concern over the tenuous nature of Taiwan’s present fighter fleet and its urgent requirement to retire obsolete F-5 and Mirage airframes, to upgrade F-16A/Bs and IDFs, and to procure new F-16C/Ds to replace retiring aircraft. Taiwan has a legitimate requirement to maintain a credible air deterrent in the face of a growing military threat from China – a threat that, to-date, has not been adequately discussed nor responded to by the Obama Administration.
US-Taiwan Business Council Supports Senator Richard Lugar’s Concerns Over Taiwan’s Deteriorating Airpower Situation (PDF file)
Senator Lugar Letter on F-16s
Executive Summary
Taiwan’s relationship with China continues to improve and expand. Yet the eroding cross-Strait military balance must be redressed so that Taiwan can approach the political dialogue from a position of confidence and strength.
Effective air defense is a crucial component if Taiwan is to mount a viable defense of the island. Taiwan’s current air defenses comprise 18 fighter squadrons with a nominal strength of 387 combat aircraft of U.S., French, and indigenous origins: 145 F-16A/Bs, 126 F-CK-1A/Bs, 56 Mirage 2000-5s, and 60 F-5E/Fs. All of these are reasonably modern “Fourth Generation” fighters with BVR AAM capability, with the F-5s – which are mainly used for operational conversion training with only a secondary combat role – as the exception.
The Taiwan Air Force (TAF) also controls ground-based air defense forces in the form of over 25 medium/long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries, using a mix of U.S. and indigenous missile systems (I-HAWK, Patriot, and Tien Kung-I/II). TAF has three existing PAC-2+ batteries (currently being upgraded) and is in the process of procuring 6 additional operational Patriot systems, for a total of 9 active PAC-3 batteries. There are also a number of short-range air defense SAM and gun systems, as well as field air defense assets operated by Taiwan’s ground forces.
In addition, Taiwan has a sophisticated integrated air defense command & control (C2) system, together with a modern network of ground-based surveillance radars and E-2 AEW&C aircraft. The air defense C2 infrastructure is currently being hardened, further modernized, and integrated with new capabilities such as the Link 16 datalink and the Surveillance Radar Program (SRP).
Taiwan’s air defense forces confront a unique threat environment involving long-range SAMs and over 1,300 tactical ballistic missiles (TBMs) and land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), which could – in concert with manned strike aircraft, UAV, information warfare/electronic warfare and Special Operations Forces (SOF) attacks – threaten their bases and C2 installations. To defend against an integrated Chinese air campaign, Taiwan is investing heavily in active missile defense, BMC3I, and early-warning capabilities. But the runways at TAF air bases are vulnerable, and damaged runways could disable defensive air operations.
Block obsolescence is also a clear and present challenge to the TAF. Its F-5 fleet is nearing the end of its useful structurally-permitted service life, and is slated to retire by 2014. In addition, the actual number of airworthy twin-seat F-5Fs was reduced to just four aircraft in 2009. This shortfall is impacting lead-in fighter training (LIFT) for new pilots, and could erode pilot quality and operational readiness over time. Similarly, Taiwan will also need to address block obsolescence and reliability issues of its I-HAWK SAM systems.
Taiwan does not currently have a cost-effective means to address TAF’s fighter capability shortfall caused by F-5 obsolescence. Taiwan’s Mirage 2000 fleet suffers from very high Operations & Maintenance (O&M) costs and chronically low availability rates. The TAF poured substantial funding into addressing the Mirage issues over the past two years, leading to recent improvements in material readiness. But a tight O&M budget situation will almost certainly ensure a relapse into low Mirage material readiness over the next few years. Taiwan may resort to mothballing part of the fleet to conserve resources, and the combination of F-5 obsolescence and strained Mirage supportability will create a substantial shortfall of fighter aircraft for the TAF.
Meanwhile, China continues to aggressively introduce large numbers of modern combat aircraft into service. China currently deploys more than 700 combat aircraft within operational range of Taiwan, with hundreds more in ready reserve. These include over 500 very modern aircraft (Su-27, Su-30, J-10, JH-7), which are roughly comparable to TAF’s “Fourth Generation” aircraft types (F-16A/Bs, Mirage 2000-5s, F-CK-1A/Bs).
Conversely, TAF fighter strength is projected to decline to only around 300 aircraft by 2014-2015, and thus China will easily be able to array a better than 2:1 numerical superiority. Taiwan will then no longer have the number of combat aircraft necessary to meet the requirements for defending its air space from Chinese military threat.
The significant quantitative decline in air defense capability that Taiwan is expected to experience over the next several years could also have a profound and enduring impact by eroding the already marginal qualitative edge still held by Taiwan. Lessons from past Taiwan Strait crises have demonstrated the importance of Taiwan maintaining a qualitative edge against China, not only to prevail in conflict but also to strengthen deterrence.
The inability to provide timely replacements of obsolete equipment and/or prevent further deterioration in material readiness could result in Taiwan permanently losing its traditional edge in training and experience. Thus the current situation is both widening the quantitative gap in the cross-Strait power balance, and narrowing TAF’s qualitative edge in aircraft performance and pilot training/experience.
The principal mission requirements for the TAF are Combat Air Patrol (CAP), Defensive Counter-Air (DCA), Maritime Strike/Anti-Invasion, and Missile Defense (TBM/LACM). To carry out these missions, TAF will need a modern fighter aircraft with sufficient aerodynamic performance, BVR missile capability, and payload/range performance to effectively counter the expected Chinese aerial threats. Taiwan will also need upgraded SAM systems to engage TBMs and LACMs.
A review of the operational scenarios indicates that Taiwan’s current air defense forces are only marginally capable of meeting the island’s air defense needs. With effective fighter strength weakened by a combination of obsolescence of the F-5E/F fleet, low material availability of the Mirage 2000-5 aircraft, and obsolescence/declining reliability of I-HAWK SAM systems, Taiwan’s ability to defend its air space against likely threat scenarios can be expected to significantly deteriorate over the next few years.
TAF urgently needs to procure new combat aircraft to compensate for the significant loss in operational fighter strength projected over the next 5 years. The fighter gap, if not bridged in a timely manner, could solidify cross-Strait military imbalance in favor of China. That would both undermine deterrence and expose Taiwan to Chinese political extortion as the two sides move towards political dialogue.
A suitable candidate aircraft has to possess sufficiently high performance, BVR capability, and payload/range characteristics to conduct the CAP/DCA and maritime-strike/anti-invasion missions. Such aircraft also need to be supportable beyond 2025 and be export-releasable to Taiwan.
Given these criteria, the aircraft best suited to Taiwan’s current needs is the F-16C/D. Taiwan has been seeking U.S. approval for the sale of 66 new F-16C/D Block 50/52 fighters since 2006, but has been repeatedly discouraged by the U.S. Government to formally submit the associated Letter of Request (LOR). With the last F-16s under contract slated to be delivered at the end of 2013 – and given the 36-month manufacturing lead time – the production could be forced to close before a decision is made. Thus the window for Taiwan to purchase new-built F-16s is closing rapidly.
Another measure that could help address Taiwan’s predicament could include adopting a more rigorous, disciplined, life-cycle cost-based approach to force modernization planning and force management. Taiwan needs to implement a robust mid-life retrofit/modernization (MLU) program for its existing fleet of F-16A/B and F-CK-1A/B fighters, to address DMS/obsolescence issues, improve reliability/maintainability, improve survivability, and update aircraft capabilities.
Taiwan should exercise farsighted MLU investment choices in such systems as radar, electronic warfare systems, power plants, mission avionics, and air-launched weapons. Examples of such capabilities could include an active electronically-scanned array (AESA) radar and an upgraded engine, which could provide force-multiplying capabilities by significantly enhancing engagement capability per platform.
Taiwan should also consider further improving its ground-based air defense capability, through a combination of acquiring additional PAC-3 and other mobile SAM systems, upgrading existing I-HAWK batteries, and introducing mobile, low-altitude air defense systems. Other major force-multipliers for Taiwan would be a modern, integrated intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capability, and additional investment in electronic warfare and information warfare (EW/IW) capabilities.
In addition to (and in combination with) maintaining a critical mass of air defense fighter capability and ground-based air defenses, Taiwan can also consider more asymmetrical approaches to the problem of integrated air defense, including passive defense measures (e.g. redundancy, dispersal, camouflage/deception, hardening, and rapid repair capabilities) and counter-strike capability (LACM, ARM, standoff-attack weapons).
In summary, Taiwan is facing a pressing fighter requirement that can best be met through acquisition of F-16C/D Block 50/52 aircraft from the United States. Taiwan can further strengthen its air defenses by investing intelligently in MLU programs for its F-16A/B and F-CK-1A/B fighters; by deploying more mobile SAM systems, upgrading existing I-HAWK batteries, and pushing ahead with its new low-altitude air defense system program; by developing advanced, integrated intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities; and by adopting a number of asymmetrical measures.
A modernized and capable Taiwan air force could play an important and constructive role supporting U.S. forces in the event of a confrontation with China over Taiwan. In contrast, an absence of credible Taiwan airpower could accentuate U.S. vulnerabilities and negatively influence U.S. power-projection in the Pacific.
In addition, a stronger and more secure Taiwan can be expected to be more confident in its political dialogue with China, which could ultimately lead to a peaceful resolution of the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Such an outcome would certainly serve the national interest of the United States.
The U.S. can and should assist Taiwan in implementing these measures, to help strengthen deterrence and to support peace and stability in the region. Improving Taiwan’s defense capability will also help reinforce the positive steps that Taipei has taken in lowering cross-Strait tensions and expanding ties with Beijing.
This major report examining the cross-Strait balance of air power and Taiwan’s major air defense requirements is available on the US-Taiwan Business Council website:
“The Balance of Air Power in the Taiwan Strait” (PDF)
Key Report Graphic: Available Airframes Through 2025
