Tag: policy

Having achieved a major milestone in cross-Strait relations over the summer with the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), Taipei has begun to think more seriously about trying to better position itself for the next phase in its dealings with Beijing.

While notable progress continues to be made, China has consistently proven a shrewd and elusive adversary of ambitious (and unwavering) political objectives. Not surprisingly, there are significant uncertainties ahead, not least of which is the political fortune of President Ma Ying-jeou’s ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party in the upcoming municipality mayoral elections and next year’s parliamentary election, as well as for Mr. Ma’s own re-election in 2012. There are also major challenges on the defense and national security front in the foreseeable future, principally due to, and in the form of, budgetary constraints.

This report will review the major political events that transpired during the third quarter of 2010. It will also discuss the significant defense and national security developments over this period, and will provide a brief update on the progress for select Taiwan arms procurement programs.

Through the second quarter of 2010, the primary focus in Taiwan has been on the trade pact with China. Known as the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), this is widely considered to be the single most important achievement for the Ma Ying-jeou administration during its first term. The ECFA may have broad-ranging implications – political as well as economic – for years to come. In conjunction with an improving economy, this significant milestone has certainly begun to help President Ma regain some of the popularity he lost since he took office in 2008.

The details of Taiwan’s defense and national security agenda for the next two years remains shrouded, although there are indications that the Ma Administration has begun to contemplate new defense procurement plans – possibly as part of an overall plan to ready Taiwan for eventual political dialogue with China.

This quarterly report provides a brief overview of significant developments during the past three months, and examines some of the factors that influenced the course of events during this period. The report will also cover implications for adding disaster relief to the core mission focus for the Ministry of National Defense (MND), along with a brief look at the status of select programs.

The year 2010 began with encouraging progress for a number of Taiwan’s long-delayed defense programs. But President Ma Ying-jeou may be finding it increasingly difficult to justify his support of continued defense procurements, given his desire to highlight the positive changes in cross-Strait relations as his presidency approaches the mid-term mark. Meanwhile, political battles also loom as the island moves closer to its historic trade pact with China. Reeling from a series of political setbacks in 2009, the Ma Administration has been trying to regain some initiative, with limited success. In addition, fiscal challenges can be expected to continue to hamper Taiwan, despite apparent signs of an economic recovery.

This report provides a brief overview of significant developments during the first three months of 2010, and examines some of the factors that influenced the course of events during this period.

Despite continued improvement in cross-Strait relations, 2009 proved to be rather stormy for President Ma Ying-jeou, whose ability to govern is increasingly being questioned in the wake of a series of political crises. The overwhelming parliamentary majority enjoyed by the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party has also proven to be of little consolation, as Mr. Ma’s style of leadership has not been conducive to coalition-building and has fueled dissent amongst the long-feuding factions within the party. Serious challenges are also looming in the defense arena, with one of President Ma’s key campaign promises on force reorganization now likely to fall through, and civil-military relations at an all-time low.

The dynamic between Taiwan defense/national security and cross-Strait détente is taking on unprecedented complexity, and it will remain a challenge for Taiwan through the foreseeable future. Yet despite these challenges, we have seen some progress through 2009. The Obama Administration has begun the congressional notification process for a substantial arms sale package to Taiwan, a process undertaken just as an official Taiwan delegation headed to Beijing to begin consultations on a major cross-Strait economic cooperation agreement.

This report provides a brief overview of significant developments through 2009, and examines some of the factors that influenced the course of events during 2009 and into early 2010.

The summer of 2009 was stormy for Taiwan, both literally and figuratively. While still struggling with a weak (albeit apparently stabilizing) economy, the island was hit by the most destructive typhoon in 50 years. Typhoon Morakot was a catastrophic event that also had powerful political ramifications. The political aftermath of the typhoon spilled over into the defense arena in the form of leadership changes and new mission priorities at the Ministry of National Defense (MND). In the meantime, the effects of Taiwan’s fiscal realities are beginning to show, with a significant tightening of defense spending in the FY2010 government budget.

This quarterly report will review the major political events that transpired during the third quarter of 2009, along with the significant defense and national security developments over this period. The report will also cover defense spending and budgetary issues, along with the normal look at the status of select programs.

Taiwan continues to experience economic distress and ongoing internal political woes. In contrast, Taiwan’s relationship with China continues to show steady improvement, and the long-term prospects seem positive. Against this backdrop, President Ma Ying-jeou has decided to consolidate his influence over the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party. It is a first step towards addressing the major economic and political challenges facing the island, as well as a means to help realize the promises of improved cross-Strait relations.

The outlook for Taiwan’s fiscal performance for the year remains bleak, which could have profound implications for the FY2010 government budget and spell serious trouble for defense spending. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s military begins a process of painful soul-searching, in a campaign to root out corruption.

This report will highlight the significant political and economic developments in Taiwan during the second quarter of 2009. It will also examine the notable defense and national security issues during the past three months, and offer updates on select weapons procurement programs.

The economy and cross-Strait ties continued to take center stage in Taiwan during the first three months of 2009. However, as Taipei moves beyond the rapid progress and relatively easy deliverables of its initial dealings with Beijing, there are signs that President Ma Ying-jeou’s government may have also begun to give greater consideration to defense and other national security agenda items. With the new U.S. Administration of President Barack Obama now in office, this could set the stage for a process to refine and possibly re-define U.S.-Taiwan relations in the months and years to come.

This report will offer a brief survey of the major political events of the past three months, together with an overview of the significant defense and national security developments during this period. The report will also provide an update on Taiwan’s defense budget, as well as an update on the procurement progress for select weapons systems.

At the beginning of 2008, many held hopes for an eventual peaceful resolution of the Taiwan “problem”, and the year even delivered on some of its early promises to lower tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

The first part of the year saw the election of President Ma Ying-jeou and the start of a new Legislative Yuan (LY) session controlled by Mr. Ma’s Kuomintang (KMT) party. This KMT majority within both the executive and the legislative branches helped pave the way not only towards ending the longstanding and frustrating deadlock in the LY, but it also served to effectively and actively thaw relations with Beijing.

Challenges remain, however, even as Taipei tries to rebuild trust with its major ally the U.S. – also undergoing a change in government – while at the same time working to improve ties with its principal and often elusive adversary, China. National security is increasingly being viewed in the context not just of traditional military balance, but also as a part of a highly complex network of competitive economic integration between China and Taiwan. This complex relationship poses new problems for Taipei in terms of defense and national security strategy, the long-term implications of which are still far from clear.

This annual report provides a brief overview of significant developments in 2008, as well as some of the more systemic factors that influenced the course of events during the past year. We will also examine the 2009 defense budget and provide an update on select systems.

The past three months saw a continued souring of public opinion and the end of the honeymoon period for President Ma Ying-jeou’s government, and the continued delay of Congressional notifications for U.S. arms sales added further strain to an already difficult period. Challenges extant both in the economic sphere and with domestic administration may have significant implications for cross-Strait affairs, as well as for Taiwan’s national security policy.

While Taipei was bolstered by its diplomatic victory when the Bush administration finally submitted the notifications to Congress for a scaled-back arms package in early October, much uncertainty remains regarding the best way forward for Taiwan’s national defense establishment. Debates on defense and national security issues are expected to rage in the coming months as the Ma administration transforms its strategic vision into policy.

This quarterly report will provide an overview of the major political events in Taiwan during the third quarter of 2008, together with an appraisal of the developments and trends that are likely to influence defense and national security issues on the island, a status update on US-Taiwan defense relations, and an update on the progress of current Taiwan procurement programs.

On Tuesday, May 20, 2008, Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT) was sworn in as president of Taiwan, heralding a sea change in cross-Strait relations. President Ma’s election victory probably means that the likelihood of a war between China and Taiwan – a war that might have involved the U.S. – has been greatly reduced. Numerous challenges remain, however, despite the very visible progress the new administration has been able to achieve in the short period of time since taking office.

As President Ma Ying-jeou and the cabinet he appointed began to take on the task of delivering on President Ma’s campaign promises, challenges have emerged across the full public policy spectrum, ranging from economic issues to cross-Strait ties, to national defense and security issues, and even to U.S.-Taiwan relations. President Ma’s vision and enthusiasm for reform is sometimes checked not only by the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), but increasingly also by members of his own KMT.

This quarterly report will provide a summary of the major political developments during the quarter, along with a survey of the evolving events and factors that have impacted (or could impact) Taiwan’s national security arena. The report will also examine the current and future defense/national security challenges that could be facing Taiwan under the new Ma Ying-jeou administration. Finally, the report will take a look at the substantive personnel changes within the Ministry of National Defense (MND), offer a status update on US-Taiwan defense relations during the second quarter, and provide an update on the progress of current Taiwan procurement programs.