Tag: taiwan

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News U.S. Government

2016 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China

The U.S. Department of Defense has released its annual report to Congress on the military power of China.
2016 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PDF)

One major section (beginning on page 86) is called Force Modernization for a Taiwan Contingency.

 

There have been no signs that China’s military posture opposite Taiwan has changed significantly. The PLA continues to develop and deploy military capabilities intended to coerce Taiwan or to attempt an invasion, if necessary. These improvements pose major challenges to Taiwan’s security, which has been based historically upon the PLA’s inability to project power across the 100 nm Taiwan Strait, the natural geographic advantages of island defense, Taiwan’s armed forces’ technological superiority, and the possibility of U.S. intervention.

China appears prepared to defer the use of force as long as it believes that unification over the long term remains possible and that the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits.

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U.S. Government

Benjamin L. Cardin & John McCain Letter to President Obama Regarding Arms Sales to Taiwan – November 19, 2015

Letter (PDF):

Benjamin L. Cardin & John McCain Letter to President Obama Regarding Arms Sales to Taiwan – November 19, 2015

 

Text of the letter:

November 19, 2015

President Barack Obama
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20515

Dear President Obama,

America’s long-standing commitment to Taiwan is a multifaceted and bipartisan effort that includes many components, all of which must be exercised as we seek to support and safeguard the ability of the people on Taiwan to determine their own future. One critical component is U.S. security assistance and arms sales to Taiwan to help modernize and build the capacity of its armed forces. We believe this support must be more robust.

While recent relations between Taiwan and China have been more encouraging, we remain concerned that China’s ongoing military modernization, and the threat it poses to peace and security in the Taiwan Strait, is not being adequately addressed. We recognize that a great deal of bilateral security cooperation is taking place between the United States and Taiwan, including more than $12 billion worth of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan since the start of your administration. These actions have been welcome. However, we are troubled that it has now been over four years – the longest period since the passage of the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979 – since the administration has notified Congress of a new arms sale package.

The United States must continue to further our interests in cross-Strait stability – a vital component of which is arms sales to Taiwan, pursuant to the Taiwan Relations Act – even when doing so brings short-term tensions in our relationship with China. The United States should develop and implement an ongoing plan for Taiwan’s military modernization, including how the administration plans to address Taiwan’s legitimate requirement for additional new manned fighters and submarines and other self-defense articles and services. Given some of the obstacles with the current approach, we believe that a regular and routine process for the provision of security assistance to Taiwan is essential.

Finally, we believe that it is equally important that Taiwan strive to meet President Ma Ying-jeou’s 2008 commitment to invest at least 3 percent of its annual gross domestic product on defense. We are increasingly concerned that, absent a change in defense spending, Taiwan’s military will continue to be under-resourced and unable to make the investments necessary to maintain a credible deterrent across the strait, especially as its limited defense resources are increasingly constrained by growing military personnel costs.

Consistent with the requirements of the Taiwan Relations Act, which call for regular consultations between the Executive Branch and Congress, we look forward to the opportunity to discuss together how best we can support and strengthen Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities, including any arms sales under consideration or planned.

Sincerely,

Benjamin L. Cardin
United States Senator

John McCain
United States Senator

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Past Events

October 4-6, 2015 – US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2015

US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2015

Event: US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2015

October 4-6, 2015
Williamsburg, Virginia

The US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2015 will be held October 4-6, 2015 in Williamsburg, Virginia. This will be the fourteenth annual event in a series of ongoing conferences addressing the future of U.S. defense cooperation with Taiwan, the defense procurement process, and Taiwan’s defense and national security needs.

This year, conference sessions will consider Taiwan’s Legislative and Presidential elections in January of 2016 and their potential impact on the island’s defense posture. We will examine potential evolutionary changes and new approaches for Taiwan, how new intellectual concepts could inform future military strategy, and how such changes in strategy might play out in procurement, arms sales, indigenous development, and budgeting. Panelists will also discuss Taiwan’s air & missile defense objectives, focusing on potential strategic changes and reviewing potential future options. Finally, we will provide an update on last year’s session on Taiwan’s indigenous submarine programs, provide insight into the progress that has been made a year later, and discuss how best to ensure continued forward momentum.

The first conference in this series was the St. Petersburg, Florida event where former Taiwan Minister of National Defense Tang Yiau-ming gave the keynote address in March of 2002. The second conference in the series was held in February 2003 in San Antonio, Texas, the third in October 2004 in Phoenix, Arizona, the fourth in September 2005 in San Diego, California, the fifth in September 2006 in Denver, Colorado, and the sixth in September 2007 in Annapolis, Maryland. Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense Chen Chao-min gave the keynote address at the seventh conference in the series, held in September 2008 on Amelia Island, Florida. The eighth conference was held in September 2009 in Charlottesville, Virginia, the ninth in October 2010 in Cambridge, Maryland, and the tenth in September 2011 in Richmond, Virginia. The eleventh conference was held in September 2012 in Hershey, Pennsylvania, the twelfth in September 2013 in Annapolis, Maryland, and the thirteenth in October 2014 in Williamsburg, Virginia.

Keynote Addresses & Conference Program
Keynote speakers will include senior representatives from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense and from the U.S. government. US-Taiwan Business Council Chairman Dr. Paul Wolfowitz will be the conference host.

Sessions at the US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference feature a moderator and several speakers on the panel, and some sessions may include additional commentators. Each speaker gives a short presentation on the session topic from his or her own viewpoint and expertise. Those presentations are then followed by a moderator-led discussion among the panelists, as well as a moderator-driven question and answer period with the attendees. This format offers the maximum amount of time for exchanges among the panelists, as well as between the panel and the audience, allowing the sessions to become a forum for substantial and valuable interaction and discussion.

Registration is now open at the 2015 US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference website.

Categories
U.S. Government

Proposed Taiwan Initiatives in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), 2016

Update: November 16, 2015

The original version of the NDAA 2016 bill vas vetoed by the president in October of 2015. On November 10, 2015, the Senate passed the “Motion to Concur in the House Amendment to S. 1356” – sending a new version of the bill (which the House had already passed on November 5, 2015) to the President for signature.

In that House version of the bill, Taiwan is listed as a potential recipient of funds to participate in the new South China Sea Initiative (page 883).

However, during its deliberations on November 5, the House removed all the other Taiwan amendments from both the House and Senate versions of the original bill. During this process, the House also made a statement regarding its views on Taiwan, which was entered into the congressional record. The text of the relevant sections:

 

The House bill contained a provision (sec. 1257) requiring the Secretary of Defense to invite the military forces of Taiwan to participate in the Rim of the Pacific Exercise if the Secretary has invited the military forces of the People’s Republic of China to participate in such maritime exercise.
The Senate amendment contained no similar provision.
The House recedes.
We note the matters addressed in the House provision are addressed elsewhere in the agreement.

 

The Senate amendment contained a provision (sec. 1263) that would express the sense of the Senate on Taiwan’s asymmetric military capabilities and bilateral training activities.
The House bill did not contain a similar provision.
The Senate recedes.

 

The Senate amendment contained a provision (sec. 1264) that would encourage the Secretary of Defense to carry out a program of exchanges of senior military officers and senior officials between the United States and Taiwan to improve military to military relations between the United States and Taiwan. The House bill contained a provision (sec. 1257) that would require the Secretary of Defense to invite the military forces of Taiwan to participate in the Rim of the Pacific Exercise if the Secretary has invited the military forces of the People’s Republic of China. The Senate amendment also contained a provision (sec. 1263) that would express the sense of the Senate on Taiwan’s asymmetric military capabilities and bilateral training activities.

We believe that the United States, in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act (Public Law 96-8), should continue to make available to Taiwan such defense articles and services as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense. The United States should continue to support the efforts of Taiwan to integrate innovative and asymmetric capabilities to balance the growing military capabilities of the People’s Republic of China, including fast-attack craft, coastal-defense cruise missiles, rapid-runway repair systems, offensive mines, and submarines optimized for defense of the Taiwan straits. With regards to training, we believe the military forces of Taiwan should be permitted to participate in bilateral training activities hosted by the United States that increase credible deterrent capabilities of Taiwan, particularly those that emphasize the defense of Taiwan Island from missile attack, maritime blockade, and amphibious invasion by the People’s Republic of China. Toward this end, we believe that Taiwan should be encouraged to participate in exercises that include realistic air-to-air combat training, including the exercise conducted at Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska, and Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, commonly referred to as “Red Flag.”

We recommend that the Secretary of Defense carry out a program of exchanges of military officers between the United States and Taiwan designed to improve military-to-military relations between the United States and Taiwan. The officer exchanges should include field-grade officers, particularly officers with combat and specialized experience, and general officers, who can provide support to Taiwan to develop and improve its joint warfighting capabilities.

We also note that section 1259A of the Fiscal Year 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. 113-291) includes the recommendation on inviting Taiwan to the humanitarian assistance and disaster relief portions of multilateral exercises.

 

The Senate amendment contained a provision (sec. 1264) authorizing the Department of Defense to conduct exchanges between senior military officers and senior officials focused on a variety of subjects between the United States and Taiwan designed to improve military-to-military relations between those two countries.
The House bill contained no similar provision.
The Senate recedes.
We note the matters addressed in the House provision are addressed elsewhere in the agreement.

 
Sources:
The November 5 reconciliations to the bill, along with the statement on Taiwan, start on page H8010 of the congressional record:
https://www.congress.gov/congressional-record/2015/11/05/house-section/article/H7747-5

Text of the final House version, with which the Senate concurred on November 10:
http://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20151102/s1356_sus_xml.pdf

 

On May 15, 2015 the U.S. House of Representatives passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, which provides funding for the U.S. military) for fiscal year 2016. An amendment (#69, included as Section 1257) to the House NDAA bill (H.R. 1735) expressed support for Taiwan participation in the Rim of the Pacific Exercise (RIMPAC) – a large international naval exercise, held every two years off the coast of Hawaii – if China is also invited to participate.

 

Section 1257 of H.R. 1735

SEC. 1257. REQUIREMENT TO INVITE THE MILITARY FORCES OF TAIWAN TO PARTICIPATE IN RIMPAC EXERCISES.

(a) In General.–The Secretary of Defense shall invite the military forces of Taiwan to participate in any maritime exercise known as the Rim of the Pacific Exercise if the Secretary has invited the military forces of the People’s Republic of China to participate in such maritime exercise.
(b) Effective Date.–This section takes effect on the date of the enactment of this Act and applies with respect to any maritime exercise described in subsection (a) that begins on or after such date of enactment.

Source: Congress.gov

 

 

Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate is deliberating its version of the NDAA, which as of May 26, 2015 includes two Taiwan-related initiatives. One is language that would give the Pentagon authority to train and equip “a variety of South China Sea states” for maritime security, and to provide funding to do so. Taiwan is one of several singled out for participation.

In addition, one section of the S. 1376 bill expresses the Senate’s support for “Taiwan Asymmetric Military Capabilities and Bilateral Training Activities”

 

Section 1263 of S. 1376

SEC. 1263. SENSE OF SENATE ON TAIWAN ASYMMETRIC MILITARY CAPABILITIES AND BILATERAL TRAINING ACTIVITIES.

It is the sense of the Senate that—

(1) the United States, in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act (Public Law 96–8), should continue to make available to Taiwan such defense articles and services as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense;

(2) the United States should continue to support the efforts of Taiwan to integrate innovative and asymmetric measures to balance the growing military capabilities of the People’s Republic of China, including fast-attack craft, coastal-defense cruise missiles, rapid-runway repair systems, offensive mines, and submarines optimized for defense of the Taiwan straits;

(3) the military forces of Taiwan should be permitted to participate in bilateral training activities hosted by the United States that increase credible deterrent capabilities of Taiwan, particularly those that emphasize the defense of Taiwan Island from missile attack, maritime blockade, and amphibious invasion by the People’s Republic of China;

(4) toward that goal, Taiwan should be encouraged to participate in exercises that include realistic air-to-air combat training, including the exercise conducted at Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska, and Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, commonly referred to as “Red Flag”; and

(5) Taiwan should also be encouraged to participate in advanced bilateral training for its ground forces, Apache attack helicopters, and P–3C surveillance aircraft in island-defense scenarios.

Source: Congress.gov

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Analysis & Commentary

The DPP’s National Defense Agenda

DPP’s  Defense  Agenda

Frequently Accessed

DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 1 – DPP’s  Defense  Agenda
DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 4 – New Chapter for Taiwan‐U.S. Defense Partnership
DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 5 – China’s Military Threats against Taiwan in 2025
DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 6 – New Generation of Soldiers
DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 9 – Taiwan’s Military Capacities in 2025
DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 12 – Preparing the Development of Indigenous Defense Industry
 

 

On May 26, 2015 the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) think tank New Frontier Foundation released four “blue papers” covering the DPP’s national defense agenda. (Press Conference)

The first of these papers (Defense Policy Blue Paper 9) has been completely translated into English, but in the remaining reports only the forewords have been translated. Forewords are written by DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen.

DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 9 – Taiwan’s Military Capacities in 2025

DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 10 – Information Protection and Strategic Communications

DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 11 – Refinement of Veteran Affairs

DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 12 – Preparing the Development of Indigenous Defense Industry

 

 

On December 5, 2014, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) think tank New Frontier Foundation released its eight “blue paper” covering the DPP’s national defense agenda.

Titled “Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief,” the paper calls for the Taiwan armed forces to expand their role and mission in order to improve military effectiveness in contingencies other than war.

English language foreword by DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen

Report Announcement

DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 8 – Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief

 

 

On October 6, 2014, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) think tank New Frontier Foundation released its seventh “blue paper” covering the DPP’s national defense agenda.

Titled “Bolstering Taiwan’s Core Defense Industries,” the paper calls for reviving the domestic defense industry, with the goal of elevating Taiwan’s capacity to produce its own defensive equipment and weaponry.

English language foreword by DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen

Report Announcement

DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 7 – Bolstering Taiwan’s Core Defense Industries

 

 

On August 22, 2014, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) think tank New Frontier Foundation released its sixth “blue paper” covering the DPP’s national defense agenda.

Titled “New Generation of Soldiers,” the paper calls for initiating reform of internal military affairs with personnel considerations as a core value, and strengthening the connection between the military and society.

English language foreword by DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen

Report Announcement

DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 6 – New Generation of Soldiers

 

 

On March 3, 2014, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) think tank New Frontier Foundation released its fifth “blue paper” covering the DPP’s national defense agenda.

In announcing the report, DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang firmly stressed the need for Taiwan to pursue stronger defense capabilities. He stated that the DPP will take full responsibility of becoming the catalyst for strengthening national defenses by encouraging indigenous defense production, especially for submarine capabilities. He also stated that Taiwan must “promptly adjust its national defense strategy, military strategy, and operational concepts” to meet growing Chinese military threats and “establish Taiwan’s self-defense capability.”

The report itself stated that Taiwan should focus on fostering private investment in indigenous R&D, next-generation weapons, and cyber warfare.

Both the Chinese and English versions have been compiled into one document (the English translation begins on page 37).

Report Announcement

DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 5 – China’s Military Threats against Taiwan in 2025

 

 

On June 6, 2013 the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) think tank New Frontier Foundation released four “blue papers” covering the DPP’s national defense agenda. (Press Conference, Report Announcement)

The first report covers the overall strategy and philosophy behind the DPP’s national defense policy. The second report covers recommendations on transforming the quasi-governmental Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST), and on strengthening the nation’s military-industrial and research capabilities. The third report covers recommendations for Taiwan’s National Security Council (NSC), while the fourth outlines the DPP’s plans to strengthen military cooperation between Taiwan and the United States.

The first paper has been completely translated into English, but in the remaining reports only the forewords have been translated.

DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 1 – DPP’s  Defense  Agenda

DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 2 – Transforming  the  CSIST: Strengthening Indigenous Defense Research and Development

DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 3 – An Accountable National Security Council

DPP Defense Policy Blue Paper 4 – New Chapter for Taiwan‐U.S. Defense Partnership

Categories
News U.S. Government

2015 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China

The U.S. Department of Defense has released its annual report to Congress on the military power of China. 2015 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PDF)

One major section (beginning on page 56) is called Force Modernization for a Taiwan Contingency.

 

Security in the Taiwan Strait is largely a function of dynamic interactions between and among mainland China, Taiwan, and the United States. China’s strategy toward Taiwan has been influenced by what it sees as positive developments in Taiwan’s political situation and approach to engagement with China. However, China’s overall strategy continues to incorporate elements of persuasion and coercion to deter or repress the development of political attitudes in Taiwan favoring independence.

China and Taiwan have made progress in expanding cross-Strait trade/economic links and people-to-people contacts. Alongside positive public statements about the Taiwan Strait situation from top leaders in China following the re-election of President Ma Ying-jeou in 2012, there have been no signs that China’s military posture opposite Taiwan has changed significantly.

The PLA has developed and deployed military capabilities to coerce Taiwan or to attempt an invasion, if necessary. These improvements pose major challenges to Taiwan’s security, which has been based historically upon the PLA’s inability to project power across the 100 nm Taiwan Strait, natural geographic advantages of island defense, Taiwan’s armed forces’ technological superiority, and the possibility of U.S. intervention.

Categories
Past Events

October 5 – 7, 2014 – US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2014

2014 US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference

Event:
US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2014

October 5-7, 2014
Williamsburg, Virginia

The US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2014 will be held October 5-7, 2014 in Williamsburg, Virginia. This will be the thirteenth annual event in a series of ongoing conferences addressing the future of U.S. defense cooperation with Taiwan, the defense procurement process, and Taiwan’s defense and national security needs. This year, conference sessions will consider Taiwan’s potential role in the U.S. strategic rebalance towards Asia, examine Taiwan’s defense and military plans for the next 5-10 years, and discuss the current status and potential new approaches to the arms sales process. We will also examine ways to expand on current models for security cooperation, as well as assess Taiwan’s indigenous submarine programs.

The first conference in this series was the St. Petersburg, Florida event where former Taiwan Minister of National Defense Tang Yiau-ming gave the keynote address in March of 2002. The second conference in the series was held in February 2003 in San Antonio, Texas, the third in October 2004 in Phoenix, Arizona, the fourth in September 2005 in San Diego, California, the fifth in September 2006 in Denver, Colorado, and the sixth in September 2007 in Annapolis, Maryland. Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense Chen Chao-min gave the keynote address at the seventh conference in the series, held in September 2008 on Amelia Island, Florida. The eighth conference was held in September 2009 in Charlottesville, Virginia, the ninth in October 2010 in Cambridge, Maryland, and the tenth in September 2011 in Richmond, Virginia. The eleventh conference was held in September 2012 in Hershey, Pennsylvania, and the twelfth in September 2013 in Annapolis, Maryland.

Keynote Addresses & Conference Program
Keynote speakers will include senior representatives from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense and from the U.S. government. US-Taiwan Business Council Chairman Dr. Paul Wolfowitz will be the conference host.

Sessions at the US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference feature a moderator and several speakers on the panel, and some sessions may include additional commentators. Each speaker gives a short presentation on the session topic from his or her own viewpoint and expertise. Those presentations are then followed by a moderator-led discussion among the panelists, as well as a moderator-driven question and answer period with the attendees. This format offers the maximum amount of time for exchanges among the panelists, as well as between the panel and the audience, allowing the sessions to become a forum for substantial and valuable interaction and discussion.

Registration is now open at the 2014 US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference website.

Categories
Analysis & Commentary U.S. Government

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission – 2013 Annual Report to Congress

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) was “created by the United States Congress in October 2000 with the legislative mandate to monitor, investigate, and submit to Congress an annual report on the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, and to provide recommendations, where appropriate, to Congress for legislative and administrative action.”

On November 20, 2013, the USCC released its 2013 annual report to congress. Chapter 3, Section 2 of the report contains analysis on Taiwan, including discussions on cross-Strait relations, Taiwan’s role in the East and South China Sea disputes, and the status of U.S.-Taiwan relations. The report also contains extensive discussion on cross-Strait military and security issues.

Complete Report (PDF, 15MB)
Chapter 3, Section 2: Taiwan (PDF, 1.1MB)

Categories
Analysis & Commentary Taiwan Government

2013 National Defense Report

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has released its 2013 National Defense Report.

The English language version of the report will be released next week has now been released. Please check back at the see the “Taiwan Ministry of National Defense Reports” page – we will post it there when it becomes available.

Categories
Analysis & Commentary News

Wall Street Journal Editorial: Taiwan’s Military Under Siege

US-Taiwan Business Council - Defense Logo

Taiwan’s Military Under Siege:
A hazing scandal could destabilize the island’s relations with Beijing and Washington

August 12, 2013
Editorial by Rupert Hammond-Chambers

After several years of relative calm, Taiwan faces a new political crossroads. The tragic hazing death of army conscript Hung Chung-chiu has thrown the entire island into turmoil, and brought a coalition of civil society groups into collision with the Ministry of National Defense (MND). The way the ruling Kuomintang handles the scandal could destabilize relations with both the U.S. and China.

Corporal Hung, after receiving significant physical hazing, died in disciplinary confinement. His alleged transgression was the taking of a camera phone on to a military base, but many speculate that he was privy to corruption on the base. The video footage of his confinement was erased before it could be handed over to judicial authorities. Taiwan’s citizens view this case through the prism of a MND that acts with impunity, and the possibility of corruption on the base has further aggravated events. Pro-China forces have jumped on the opportunity to further undermine the MND and claim that the military is unworthy of robust support.

Washington has reason to worry about that backlash because the MND is the most important pro-American institution within the government. Some in the KMT want to impose financial restrictions on the MND to “starve the beast” in the aftermath of the hazing scandal. This would further weaken the already underfunded MND at a time when the military requires resources and support to transform itself into a modern, well-equipped, and all-volunteer force. Mr. Ma committed to turning a conscript army into an all-volunteer force, but has so far failed to come up with the budget. That means the military is unable to execute a policy directive from its civilian leadership. The MND is frustrated over what it views as a policy that by design leaves it highly vulnerable to political attack. Recent events have also left a vacuum at the top, with two ministers resigning in rapid succession.

The scandal could also destabilize relations with mainland China. The “deep blue” – i.e. pro-China – members of Mr. Ma’s Kuomintang party want him to open political and military talks with Beijing, which has been frustrated with the lack of movement in this area after it made economic overtures to the island. The deep blue camp wants to restrict funds to the MND, claiming that China’s ongoing military build-up is nothing to worry about and that the money should be spent elsewhere. This is a dangerous road, as there is no consensus in Taiwan on moving forward with cross-Strait talks. More than 90% of Taiwan’s citizens support the status quo of de facto independence, and forcing through such talks would further polarize Taiwan society. But without a credible defense, Taiwan could one day be forced to accept Beijing’s terms on reunification.

Chinese leaders must be watching these developments with positive glee. Taipei is doing more damage to its own ability to deter mainland coercion and military attack than any weapon the People’s Liberation Army could conceive. This damage represents a serious threat to Taiwan’s national security, and by extension to the national security of the U.S. and Japan.

Given the political atmosphere, the KMT’s prospects in next year’s five municipal elections are tenuous at best. If the opposition DPP wins three or more municipalities, they will likely have the momentum to regain the presidency in 2016. And even if the KMT hold on to the presidency, the incoming president will have limited maneuvering room in relations with China. Either way, tensions are set to rise as China sees its present strategy of engagement founder on the realities of Taiwan’s vibrant democracy.

The Obama administration’s decision rhetorically and substantively to omit Taiwan from its pivot to Asia telegraphs to China that Taiwan is no longer central to U.S. policy. By doing so, the U.S. is inviting Chinese adventurism when the present trajectory of Taiwan-China relations changes in the spring of 2016, if not sooner. China is currently playing nice, because it believes that Taiwan is being drawn inexorably into the fold. That explains why cross-Strait relations have been calm since Mr. Ma’s election in 2008. However, if Beijing starts to believe that time is no longer on its side, we can expect behavior more in line with China’s aggressiveness toward its other neighbors.

If the U.S. wants to avoid repeating Dean Acheson’s mistake of encouraging North Korea to invade the South in 1950, it needs to signal resolve to defend Taiwan. Taiwan’s democratic growing pains should not open the door for further Chinese coercion. The U.S. can recalibrate its Taiwan policy by restarting the arms sales to Taiwan that have been stalled for two years. The first step should be new F-16 C/D fighters, followed by assistance with the procurement of submarines. In addition, as Mr. Obama has instructed his cabinet officers to make at least one visit to Asia each year, Taiwan should be a port-of-call for all the economic officers making that trip. More senior uniformed officers need to visit Taiwan, both to improve communication at the highest levels and offer U.S. support for the MND and its reform efforts.

The Obama administration has been happy with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship under President Ma, especially compared to the turbulence under his predecessor Chen Shui-bian. But this is because both sides have been content to allow the relationship to drift. Taiwan asks for little, which the U.S. provides. This complacency will come back to haunt both nations soon.

 

Rupert Hammond-Chambers is President of the US-Taiwan Business Council

 

Editorial Published in the Wall Street Journal’s “Opinion Asia” section, August 12, 2013
PDF of Editorial