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Press Releases U.S. Government

The US-Taiwan Business Council Welcomes the Proposed Sale of 66 F-16 Block 70 Fighter Jets to Taiwan, an Arms Sale Years in the Making


The US-Taiwan Business Council (USTBC) today welcomed the announcement of a possible U.S. Foreign Military Sale of 66 F-16 Block 70 fighter jets to Taiwan for a total estimated value of US$8 billion. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) delivered the required certification notifying Congress of the proposed Taiwan sale on August 20, 2019.
 
The F-16 Block 70 is the most advanced variant of the F-16 Fighting Falcon multirole fighter. The F-16 Block 70 allows for improved interoperability, and integrates advanced capabilities including an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, a state of the art electronic warfare suite, and upgraded avionics.
 
Today’s Congressional Notification (transmittal number 19-50) included the 66 F-16 aircraft, 75 F110 General Electric Engines, 75 Link-16 Systems, 75 Improved Programmable Display Generators (iPDG), 75 APG-83 Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) Radars, 75 Modular Mission Computers 7000AH, 75 LN-260 Embedded GPS/INS, and 75 M61 Vulcan 20mm Guns. At a quantity of 75, each item comes with 9 spares.
 
The notification also included 138 LAU-129 Multipurpose Launchers, 18 of various FMU Fuze systems for Guided Bombs, 6 MK-82 Filled Inert Bombs for Guided Bombs, 3 KMU-572 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) Tail Kits, GBU-38/54, along with numerous other related equipment and logistics, program, and sustainment support.
 
This proposed arms sale will allow Taiwan to field a modern and capable fleet of fighter aircraft in sufficient numbers to meet the evolving military threat from China. Taiwan’s Air Force has indicated that it will increase the number of tactical fighter wings from seven to eight after receiving the new aircraft.
 
USTBC has spent more than a decade advocating for the United States to sell additional F-16s to Taiwan, publishing several reports on Taiwan’s need for new-build fighter jets. The 66 new F-16 Block 70s will help close the looming fighter gap by addressing both quantitative and qualitative challenges faced by the Taiwan Air Force, and the sale will significantly improve Taiwan’s air defenses.
 
Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers commented that “the sale of F-16 Block 70 fighters is the most important arms sale to Taiwan since the 2001 commitments by the Bush Administration. The modernization of the fleet by these new planes has several significant benefits. 1) The consolidation of the Taiwan fighter force around a single platform, given Taiwan’s ongoing upgrade of its legacy F-16 fleet to the same variant. 2) The consummate reduction in operating and maintenance costs realized by simplifying the fighter fleet. 3) The reduction in the mean age of the fleet, which should raise the operational and availability rates for the overall Taiwan fighter force. 4) A platform that will significantly improve interoperability amongst Taiwan forces. 5) A bridge to potential future purchases of fifth-generation fighters like the F-35.”
 
Hammond-Chambers went on to say, “The policy significance of this sale should not be overlooked. For 20+ years the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has had an over-weighted role in U.S. deliberations around arms sales to Taiwan. That included the Bush Administration in 2006, when Taiwan’s original request for new F-16s was rejected over fears of the PRC’s response. Since then, the PRC has effectively limited – through threats and coercion – what the U.S. would consider for sale to Taiwan and the timeline for such sales. This approach immeasurably damaged Taiwan’s security, and negatively impacted the interests of the U.S. in Asia. The rejection of PRC coercion – along with rejecting its stated “red lines” over certain capabilities such as new F-16s – fully restores American security interests related to Taiwan arms sales, and removes PRC considerations from the ongoing development of American and Taiwan joint security interests.”

http://www.us-taiwan.org/pressrelease/2019august20congressionalnotificationf-16armssaletotaiwan.pdf

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Press Releases U.S. Government

The US-Taiwan Business Council Comments on the July 8, 2019 U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan of M1A2 Abrams MBTs & Stinger Missiles

The US-Taiwan Business Council today welcomed the announcement of two possible Foreign Military Sales of M1A2 Abrams Main Battle Tanks (MBT), Stinger Missiles, and related equipment and support to Taiwan for a total estimated value of US$2 billion. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) delivered the required certifications notifying Congress of the proposed Taiwan arms sales on July 8, 2019.

The published Congressional Notifications (transmittal numbers 19-21 and 19-22) are for a total value of approximately US$2 billion, with the Stinger Missiles at an estimated cost of US$223.56 million.

The first notification includes 108 M1A2T Abrams Tanks; 14 M88A2 HERCULES Vehicles; 16 M1070A1 Heavy Equipment Transporters (HET); 338 M2 Chrysler Mount and M240 Machine Guns; a variety of munitions and other equipment and services; as well as program logistics and additional support. The second notification includes 250 Block I -92F MANPAD Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and 4 Block I -92F MANPAD Stinger Fly-to-Buy missiles, along with related equipment and support.

The 108 M1A2 Abrams MBTs appear destined for the 6th Army Corps’ two armored battalions stationed in northern Taiwan. The new tanks will replace some of Taiwan’s existing M60A3 Patton and CM-11 Brave Tiger tanks in service with the Taiwan Army, as part of a refresh of some of its older existing equipment.

The US-Taiwan Business Council is encouraged by these Congressional notifications. Despite initial concerns over the efficiency of the M1A2 Abrams platform on Taiwan’s coastal wetlands and in its mountains, the U.S. has provided the Taiwan military with the equipment it has requested, trusting to Taiwan war planners and military strategists to make their own determination of Taiwan’s needs.

Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers said that “these tanks and missiles will provide the Taiwan army with a modern capability to deter and complicate the operational planning of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces that coerce and threaten Taiwan. They will also offer new opportunities to engage in cooperation with the United States in both the deployment and operations phases, and to maximize the effectiveness of the equipment.”

Hammond-Chambers went on to say, “the Trump Administration recognizes that even at a time of higher tensions in the U.S.-China relationship, the U.S. providing material support for Taiwan’s ongoing force modernization should not be predicated on U.S.-China priorities. The Administration has made a commitment to regularize and normalize the arms sales process to Taiwan, and today’s announcement is a testament to that commitment. It is a sound and responsible policy that will maximize the deterrent nature of a modern, well-equipped Taiwan military capable of complicating and deterring any actions by the PLA.”

http://www.us-taiwan.org/pressrelease/2019july08congressionalnotificationsarmssalestotaiwan.pdf

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News U.S. Government

2019 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China

The U.S. Department of Defense has released its annual report to Congress on the military power of China.

Reorganizing for Operations along China’s Periphery

China’s overall strategy toward Taiwan continues to incorporate elements of both persuasion and coercion to hinder the development of political attitudes in Taiwan favoring independence. Taiwan lost three additional diplomatic partners in 2018, and some international fora continued to deny the participation of representatives from Taiwan. Although China advocates for peaceful unification with Taiwan, China has never renounced the use of military force, and continues to develop and deploy advanced military capabilities needed for a potential military campaign.

Military Strategy and Doctrine

Taiwan persistently remains the PLA’s main “strategic direction,” one of the geographic areas the leadership identifies as having strategic importance, in authoritative military publications. Other strategic directions include the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and China’s borders with India and North Korea. PLA reforms have oriented each new theater command toward a specific strategic direction.

China’s Strategy and Capabilities Development in the Taiwan Strait

China appears prepared to defer the use of military force as long as it believes that unification with Taiwan over the long-term remains possible and the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits. China argues the credible threat of force is essential to maintain the conditions for political progress and prevent Taiwan from making moves toward independence.

For decades, China has refused to renounce the use of force to resolve the Taiwan issue. Simultaneously, China’s leaders proclaim their desire for peaceful unification under the principle of “one country, two systems,” as emphasized in President Xi Jinping’s addresses opening the CCP’s 19th Party Congress.

The circumstances under which the mainland has historically warned it would use force have evolved over time. These circumstances have included:

  • Formal declaration of Taiwan independence
  • Undefined moves toward Taiwan independence
  • Internal unrest in Taiwan
  • Taiwan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons
  • Indefinite delays in the resumption of
    cross-Strait dialogue on unification
  • Foreign intervention in Taiwan’s internal
    affairs and
  • Foreign forces stationed on Taiwan.

Key Takeaways

Key takeaways listed in the report include:

  • The Eastern Theater Command is oriented toward Taiwan and the East China Sea.
  • Relations between China and Taiwan remained cool through 2018.
  • Bowing to Chinese pressure, the Dominican Republic, Burkina Faso, and El Salvador switched diplomatic relations from Taipei to Beijing.
  • The PLA continued Taiwan Strait contingency preparations.
  • Although China advocates for peaceful unification with Taiwan, China has never renounced the use of military force; the circumstances under which China has historically warned it would use force remain ambiguous and have evolved over time.
  • China has an array of options for a Taiwan campaign, ranging from an air and maritime blockade to a full-scale amphibious invasion to seize and occupy some or all of Taiwan or its offshore islands.
  • PLA services and support forces continue to improve training and acquire new capabilities for a Taiwan contingency, but there is no indication China is significantly expanding its landing ship force necessary for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.
  • Taiwan’s advantages continue to decline as China’s modernization efforts continue.
  • To counter China’s improving capabilities,Taiwan is developing new concepts and capabilities for asymmetric warfare.
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Press Releases U.S. Government

The US-Taiwan Business Council Comments on the September 24, 2018 U.S. Arms Sale to Taiwan

The US-Taiwan Business Council today welcomed the decision by the U.S. Department of State to announce its approval of a possible Foreign Military Sales Order (FMSO) to Taiwan for an estimated value of US$330 million. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) delivered the required certifications notifying Congress of the proposed Taiwan arms sale on September 24, 2018.

The published Congressional Notification (transmittal number 18-09) is for an FMSO II that would provide funds for blanket order requisitions – under a Cooperative Logistics Supply Support Arrangement – for stock replenishment supply of standard spare parts and repair/replace of spare parts in support of the F-16, C-130, F-5, Indigenous Defense Fighter (IDF), all other aircraft systems and subsystems, and other related elements of logistics and program support.

The US-Taiwan Business Council is encouraged by this Congressional notification, which appears to move away from the previous “bundling” method for Taiwan arms sales. Notifying each sale when it is ready is a positive development, and indicates more potential activity at the end of this year and into early 2019. It is the approach the Council has advocated for since the original bundling began in 2008.

Real issues remain, however, with Taiwan’s ability to ask for the defensive systems it wants and needs. Since 2011, U.S. arms sales have focused almost exclusively on sustainment and maintenance of Taiwan’s existing military capabilities. There has seemingly been no willingness by the U.S. to assess new capabilities for Taiwan, with requests for new systems apparently rejected or deterred prior to the initial stages of evaluation.

New arms sales requests by Taiwan should be subject to an interagency assessment that includes the National Security Council, the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Department of State, the Indo-Pacific Command, the American Institute in Taiwan, and other organizations. All such requests should be evaluated on their merits only, with potential Chinese reactions to a sale not a part of the calculus.

“Intelligent” Requests
In speeches and other statements, the State Department has discussed the need for “intelligent” arms sales, which leave unanswered questions both about the criteria for arms sales and the existing process. Is Taiwan free to make any request, or only those deemed “intelligent?” Who makes the determination of what is “intelligent,” and at what stage in the review process does this determination take place?

Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers noted that “the Trump Administration’s stated policy is that Taiwan may submit a Letter of Request (LoR) for Pricing & Availability (P&A) data for any platform or system Taiwan feels they need to mount a credible defense, and it is entitled to receive a full assessment and timely response to their request by the full interagency review process.”

Hammond-Chambers added, “This gets at the heart of normalizing the arms sales process. Will Taiwan be able to ask for all that it feels it needs, to then have that LoR accepted – not deterred if deemed “unintelligent” – and assessed on its merits? If the U.S. deems that a request is not doable at the moment, will they offer an alternative solution? It is not for any one department to determine what is “intelligent,” but for the full interagency review process to be employed to ensure that Taiwan can mount a credible and full defense as required by the Taiwan Relations Act.”

http://www.us-taiwan.org/pressrelease/2018september25congressionalnotificationsarmssalestotaiwan.pdf

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News U.S. Government

2018 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China

The U.S. Department of Defense has released its annual report to Congress on the military power of China.

2018 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PDF)

2018 – Military Power Report Fact Sheet (PDF)

Force Modernization for a Taiwan Contingency

 

 
China appears prepared to defer the use of force as long as it believes that unification over the long-term remains possible and that the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits. China argues that the credible threat of force is essential to maintain the conditions for political progress and to prevent Taiwan from making moves toward de jure independence. China has refused for decades to renounce the use of force to resolve the Taiwan issue. Simultaneously, China’s leaders proclaim their desire for peaceful unification under the principle of “one country, two systems,” most recently as part of President Xi Jinping’s address opening the CCP’s 19th Party Congress.

The circumstances under which the mainland has historically warned that it would use force have evolved over time in response to the island’s declarations of its political status, changes in PLA capabilities, and China’s view of Taiwan’s relations with other countries. These circumstances have included:

  • Formal declaration of Taiwan independence;
  • Undefined moves toward Taiwan independence;
  • Internal unrest on Taiwan;
  • Taiwan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons;
  • Indefinite delays in the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue on unification;
  • Foreign intervention in Taiwan’s internal affairs; and
  • Foreign forces stationed on Taiwan.

Article 8 of China’s March 2005 Anti-Secession Law states that China may use “non-peaceful means” if “secessionist forces … cause the fact of Taiwan’s secession from China,” if “major incidents entailing Taiwan’s secession” occur, or if “possibilities for peaceful reunification” are exhausted.

The ambiguity of these conditions preserves China’s flexibility. In December 2017, Chinese Embassy official Li Kexin, in response to U.S. Congressional language recommending the U.S. Navy explore visiting Taiwan, stated that such a visit would prompt China to take Taiwan by force.

Key Takeaways

Key takeaways listed in the report include:
 

  • While China advocates for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, China has never repudiated the use of military force, and continues to develop and deploy increasingly advanced capabilities needed for a potential military campaign.
  • Circumstances that would prompt the use of force remain ambiguous, preserving China’s flexibility.
  • Multiple military options exist for a Taiwan campaign, ranging from an air and maritime blockade to a full-scale amphibious invasion to seize and occupy some or all of Taiwan or its offshore islands.
  • China could engage in a deliberate force buildup to signal an imminent military campaign or conduct a surprise campaign to force rapid military and political resolutions before other countries could respond.
  • Should the United States intervene, China would try to delay effective intervention and seek victory in a high-intensity, limited war of short duration.
  • The PLA aims to increase its ability to conduct complex joint operations.
  • Although ongoing reforms may decrease near-term readiness, in the long-term they should enable better planning and preparation for joint military operations across the Taiwan Strait. PLA services and support forces continue to improve training and acquire new capabilities for a Taiwan contingency.
  • Although the PLAN seeks to achieve maritime superiority within the first island chain and to deter a third party from intervening in a Taiwan campaign, there is no indication it is significantly expanding its landing ship force necessary for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.
  • Taiwan’s advantages continue to decline as China’s modernization efforts continue.
  • Taiwan’s transition to an all-volunteer force by 2019 will be costlier than anticipated, straining the limited defense budget and diverting funds from defense acquisition, training, and readiness.
  • To counter China’s improving capabilities, Taiwan is developing new concepts and capabilities for asymmetric warfare.
  • The PLAA and PLANMC continue to equip, plan, and train for sustained amphibious operations.
  • The PLAN did not make significant additions to its amphibious fleet in 2017 but launched a YUZHAO LPD that could enter service in 2018.
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Press Releases U.S. Government

U.S. Senators Cornyn and Inhofe Urge President Trump to Support New Fighters for Taiwan

In a March 26, 2018 letter, Senators John Cornyn and James Inhofe urge President Donald Trump to support the sale to Taiwan of a new tranche of modern, U.S.-built fighters – the F-35B with its vertical lift capability, or additional F-16Vs – to boost Taiwan’s air defense capabilities.

The Senators wrote, “Taiwan has a legitimate requirement to field a modem fighter fleet to address a myriad of defense contingencies. Therefore, Taiwan is requesting U.S. support in their procurement of the F-35B.” “However, if determined that release of the F-35B to Taiwan is premature, we hope that you will instead make available additional F-16Vs to address the quantitative and qualitative challenges confronting Taiwan’s fighter fleet. Taiwan already fields the F-16, and this would represent a cost-effective solution to Taiwan’s legitimate defense requirement for additional fighters.”

Cornyn and Inhofe also noted, “These fighters will have a positive impact on Taiwan’s self-defense and would act as a necessary deterrent to China’s aggressive military posture across the Asia-Pacific region.”

China’s force modernization efforts are having a destabilizing impact on the entire North East Asian security environment. Japan and Korea, as well as forward-deployed U.S. forces, are procuring and/or upgrading their fleets of modern fighters in response. It is entirely consistent with U.S. interests to support Taiwan’s efforts to do likewise. To maintain a credible defense against China’s coercive military posture, Taiwan urgently needs to modernize its fighter fleet.

It has now been 25 years since Taiwan last bought new-build fighters, and this has become a challenge for the Taiwan Air Force. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen recognizes this challenge, and has stated her willingness to take decisive action including budgeting significant funds to procure new fighters. A U.S. sale of new fighters to Taiwan would have a positive impact on Taiwan’s defense spending, and would represent an important increase in Taiwan’s commitment to its own defense and security.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers, President of the US-Taiwan Business Council, noted that “failing to sell new-built fighters to Taiwan is to relegate the Taiwan Air Force to marginalization and eventual extinction. That would significantly weaken the island, which is inherently destabilizing, while placing an additional burden on U.S. and allied forces to manage the airspace between Okinawa and the Philippines.”

Hammond-Chambers also said, “The Council supports the sale of additional fighters to Taiwan. We believe that such a sale is consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) requirement to provide Taiwan with arms to defend itself. It would also be an important development in the Trump Administration’s policy of promoting capacity-building amongst Asian friends and allies, it would represent an important defense export opportunity for American companies, and it would be an appropriate response to China’s ongoing force modernization efforts and its constant coercive training deployments against Taiwan.”

Press Release: U.S. Senators Cornyn and Inhofe Urge President Trump to Support New Fighters for Taiwan
Letter from Senators Cornyn and Inhofe urging President Trump to support new fighters for Taiwan

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Press Releases U.S. Government

The Trump Administration Announces U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan

The US-Taiwan Business Council today welcomed the decision by the U.S. Department of State to announce its approval of seven possible Foreign Military Sales to Taiwan, with a total value of US$1.363 billion. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) delivered the required certifications notifying Congress of the proposed Taiwan arms sales on June 29, 2017. A direct commercial sale was also notified, bringing the total to approximately US$1.4 billion.

The published FMS Congressional Notifications (transmittal numbers 16-67, 16-68, 16-69, 16-70, 16-73, 16-74, and 16-75) were for SM-2 Block IIIA All-Up Rounds, associated equipment and technical support (US$125 million); MK 54 Lightweight Torpedo Conversion Kits, spare parts and other support and assistance (US$175 million); MK 48 Mod 6AT Heavyweight Torpedoes, other support, spare parts, training, and assistance (US$250 million); Hardware, software, and other upgrades to the AN/SLQ-32(V)3 Electronic Warfare Systems supporting Taiwan’s KEELUNG Class destroyers (US$80 million); AGM-154C JSOW Air-to-Ground Missiles, spare/repair parts and other support and assistance (US$185.5 million); AGM-88B HARMs and Training HARMs, spare/repair parts, testing, and other support and assistance (US$147.5 million); SRP Operations and Maintenance follow-on sustainment (US$400 million).

The US-Taiwan Business Council welcomes these Congressional notifications in adherence to the Taiwan Relations Act, which obligates the U.S. to help enable Taiwan’s self-defense. However, it has been 562 days since the last arms sale to Taiwan in late 2015. The Council questions the impact that delays in consideration and execution of Taiwan arms requests are having on the island’s ability to maintain its self-defense capabilities.

Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers noted that “support for Taiwan remains an essential aspect of the U.S. national security posture in Asia, particularly as increased cross-Strait tensions would fundamentally threaten stability in the region. The U.S. is legally and historically committed to providing Taiwan with arms of sufficient quantity and quality to provide for its own self-defense. Arms sales have long been a mainstay of U.S. security relations with the island, supporting U.S. efforts to deter coercion from the PRC and help provide for Taiwan’s self-determination.”

Hammond-Chambers added “The Council supports the return to a normal and regular process for assessing all Taiwan arms sales requests and sales. Packaging several years’ worth of items drives up the overall dollar value of each tranche of notifications. Each Taiwan arms sale also becomes a rare and compelling event, drawing significantly more attention than it might otherwise garner. This creates a more substantial opportunity for Chinese protests and posturing in response to each sale, protests that have had a deterrent effect on U.S. willingness to release needed but advanced systems to Taiwan – such as new-build fighters and submarines. It would be in the U.S. interest to provide less of an impetus for Chinese protests in response to Taiwan arms sales, and moving away from packaging would be a substantial step in the right direction.”

The Trump Administration Announces U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan

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Press Releases U.S. Government

U.S. Senators Urge President Trump to Support Taiwan’s Self Defense Capabilities

In a June 23, 2017 letter to President Donald Trump, Senators Benjamin Cardin, John Cornyn, James Inhofe, Edward Markey, John McCain, Robert Menendez, Marco Rubio, and Ron Wyden urge President Trump to adopt a policy of regular, robust, and consistent support for Taiwan’s self-defense efforts in the face of ongoing military aggression by China and the growing cross-Strait military imbalance.

The letter enumerated three areas that require attention from the White House. The release of pending Taiwan arms sales programs currently awaiting Congressional notification; ending the practice of bundling Taiwan arms sales, instead establishing a regular and routine process whereby notifications would be sent to Congress when ready; and quickly and robustly addressing Taiwan’s significant and legitimate future requirements for new defense capabilities.

The Senators noted that the U.S. should not allow concerns about China to take precedence over support for Taiwan. They also commented that “China has intensified its economic coercion and military intimidation tactics, thereby stoking cross-Strait tensions and threatening peace and security in the Taiwan Strait. Given these circumstances, our support for Taiwan is more important than ever.”

Rupert Hammond-Chambers, President of the US-Taiwan Business Council, said “This letter is a welcome and positive development. The recent cross-Strait dynamics have been increasingly unstable due to coercive Chinese behavior and waning U.S. support. U.S. policy toward Taiwan requires sustained, focused, and determined engagement on Taiwan’s military modernization. The Council is pleased to see the Senate maintain its ongoing leadership on matters impacting U.S. relations with Taiwan, a core U.S. friend and ally in Northeast Asia. Such U.S. support for Taiwan serves to protect peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, which is a core strategic interest of the United States.”

A copy of the letter is attached, and can also be downloaded from the Council’s website at www.us-taiwan.org.

U.S. Senators Urge President Trump to Support Taiwan’s Self Defense Capabilities (PDF)

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News U.S. Government

2017 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China

The U.S. Department of Defense has released its annual report to Congress on the military power of China.
2017 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PDF)

One major section is called Force Modernization for a Taiwan Contingency.

 

The PLA continues to develop and deploy military capabilities intended to coerce Taiwan or to attempt an invasion, if necessary. These improvements pose major challenges to Taiwan’s security, which has historically been rooted in the PLA’s inability to project power across the 100 nm Taiwan Strait, the natural geographic advantages of island defense, Taiwan’s armed forces’ technological superiority, and the possibility of U.S. intervention.

China appears prepared to defer the use of force as long as it believes that unification over the long term remains possible and that the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits. China argues that the credible threat of force is essential to maintain the conditions for political progress and to prevent Taiwan from making moves toward de jure independence. China has refused for decades to renounce the use of force to resolve the Taiwan issue, despite simultaneously professing its desire for peaceful unification under the principle of “one country, two systems.”

The circumstances under which the mainland has historically warned that it would use force have evolved over time in response to the island’s declarations of its political status, changes in PLA capabilities, and China’s view of Taiwan’s relations with other countries. These circumstances have included:

  • formal declaration of Taiwan independence;
  • undefined moves toward Taiwan independence;
  • internal unrest on Taiwan;
  • Taiwan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons;
  • indefinite delays in the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue on unification;
  • foreign intervention in Taiwan’s internal affairs; and
  • foreign forces stationed on Taiwan.

Article 8 of China’s March 2005 Anti-Secession Law states that China may use “non-peaceful means” if “secessionist forces … cause the fact of Taiwan’s secession from China,” if “major incidents entailing Taiwan’s secession” occur, or if “possibilities for peaceful reunification” are exhausted. The ambiguity of these “redlines” preserves China’s flexibility.

Categories
News U.S. Government

2016 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China

The U.S. Department of Defense has released its annual report to Congress on the military power of China.
2016 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PDF)

One major section (beginning on page 86) is called Force Modernization for a Taiwan Contingency.

 

There have been no signs that China’s military posture opposite Taiwan has changed significantly. The PLA continues to develop and deploy military capabilities intended to coerce Taiwan or to attempt an invasion, if necessary. These improvements pose major challenges to Taiwan’s security, which has been based historically upon the PLA’s inability to project power across the 100 nm Taiwan Strait, the natural geographic advantages of island defense, Taiwan’s armed forces’ technological superiority, and the possibility of U.S. intervention.

China appears prepared to defer the use of force as long as it believes that unification over the long term remains possible and that the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits.