Category: Analysis

The past three months saw a continued souring of public opinion and the end of the honeymoon period for President Ma Ying-jeou’s government, and the continued delay of Congressional notifications for U.S. arms sales added further strain to an already difficult period. Challenges extant both in the economic sphere and with domestic administration may have significant implications for cross-Strait affairs, as well as for Taiwan’s national security policy.

While Taipei was bolstered by its diplomatic victory when the Bush administration finally submitted the notifications to Congress for a scaled-back arms package in early October, much uncertainty remains regarding the best way forward for Taiwan’s national defense establishment. Debates on defense and national security issues are expected to rage in the coming months as the Ma administration transforms its strategic vision into policy.

This quarterly report will provide an overview of the major political events in Taiwan during the third quarter of 2008, together with an appraisal of the developments and trends that are likely to influence defense and national security issues on the island, a status update on US-Taiwan defense relations, and an update on the progress of current Taiwan procurement programs.

On Tuesday, May 20, 2008, Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT) was sworn in as president of Taiwan, heralding a sea change in cross-Strait relations. President Ma’s election victory probably means that the likelihood of a war between China and Taiwan – a war that might have involved the U.S. – has been greatly reduced. Numerous challenges remain, however, despite the very visible progress the new administration has been able to achieve in the short period of time since taking office.

As President Ma Ying-jeou and the cabinet he appointed began to take on the task of delivering on President Ma’s campaign promises, challenges have emerged across the full public policy spectrum, ranging from economic issues to cross-Strait ties, to national defense and security issues, and even to U.S.-Taiwan relations. President Ma’s vision and enthusiasm for reform is sometimes checked not only by the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), but increasingly also by members of his own KMT.

This quarterly report will provide a summary of the major political developments during the quarter, along with a survey of the evolving events and factors that have impacted (or could impact) Taiwan’s national security arena. The report will also examine the current and future defense/national security challenges that could be facing Taiwan under the new Ma Ying-jeou administration. Finally, the report will take a look at the substantive personnel changes within the Ministry of National Defense (MND), offer a status update on US-Taiwan defense relations during the second quarter, and provide an update on the progress of current Taiwan procurement programs.

The first quarter of 2008 brought an anxiously-anticipated and welcome end to the highly contentious presidential election campaign in Taiwan. It is widely believed that the results of the March 22, 2008 presidential election are likely to usher in a new period in Taiwan politics, with reduced tensions in the relationships with China and with Washington. The consolidation of legislative and executive powers in the Kuomintang (KMT) is also expected to lead to less political gridlock and more forward momentum on reforms.

While the new Cabinet is still being appointed as this is written, it is clear that the new government under President Ma Ying-Jeou -with his significant margin of popular support and control of three-fourths of the legislature – should be able to concentrate on his two-prong policies of economic recovery and national security through cross-Strait reconciliation.

This report will offer a brief survey of the significant political events in the past three months, together with an overview of the major developments that have dominated Taiwan’s national security scene during this period. The analysis will also explore how the results of the presidential election are expected to influence Taiwan’s defense and national security policies going forward.

This has been a year of challenges in U.S.-Taiwan relations, dominated by continuing friction over a range of politically-driven initiatives by the Chen Shui-bian government – initiatives that not only aggravated internal divisiveness but also irritated and alienated Washington. The past year saw the process of political consolidation within the two major political coalitions in Taiwan, with the resultant new alignment put to the test in the January 12, 2008 Legislative Yuan elections. Of course, 2007 has also seen some long overdue breakthroughs on the defense budget front, with both the passage of funding for the three major arms procurement programs and an increase in the annual defense budget to a little less than 3% of Taiwan’s GDP.

This annual analysis report provides a brief overview of significant developments in 2007, while examining some of the more systemic factors that influenced the course of events during the past year. The analysis will also look ahead and attempt to gauge the likely impact of both the LY election and the upcoming March 2008 presidential polls on national security affairs.

Executive Summary: Taiwan Defense & Security Report – Annual Review, 2007

The summer and early fall of 2007 saw what could be the start of a slow-brewing crisis of sorts, stemming from responses by both Beijing and Washington to Taipei’s reinvigorated interest in regaining membership in the United Nations (UN). The movement towards applying for UN membership under the name Taiwan has significant popular support in Taiwan. Fueled by election-year politics, it has taken on real momentum and has attracted not only the attention but also the ire of both the United States and China. In fact, the U.S. reaction has been such that there are real concerns about its potentially lasting impact on U.S. policy regarding defense sales to Taiwan.

This quarterly report examines the major developments in Taiwan’s political environment during July, August, and September of 2007, an environment that both defines and limits focus in the defense and national security arena. The report continues our survey of the national security platform of each of the two principal candidates in the 2008 presidential election, examines their views on Taiwan’s future defense and foreign policies and on cross-Strait relations, and offers an overview of their respective decision-making circles. Finally, also included are the usual review of the status of defense policy matters, the defense budget, U.S.-Taiwan security cooperation, and major procurement programs.

Executive Summary: Taiwan Defense & Security Report – Q3, 2007

In Taiwan, end of party primaries for the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, to be held early in 2008, finally offered a much welcomed breakthrough in the long-stalemated defense budget, a budget that was finally approved during the second quarter of 2007. Completion of the party nomination process also effectively kicked off the election season, however, which could mean further partisan battles and much campaign politicking in the coming year.

This report reviews the significant events in the areas of Taiwan defense and national security during April, May and June of 2007. The analysis also surveys the major political developments which ultimately made the budget breakthrough possible, and which will continue to influence Taiwan’s national security policy arena for the rest of the year.

As a new feature, the quarterly reports will begin to look at the national security platform of each of the two principal presidential candidates, their views on Taiwan’s future defense and foreign policies and cross-Strait relations, and an overview of their respective decision-making circles. Finally, also included are the usual reviews of the status of defense policy matters, the defense budget, U.S.-Taiwan security cooperation, and major procurement programs.

Executive Summary: Taiwan Defense & Security Report – Q2, 2007